This quick analysis is subject to change and is possibly accurate as of August 15, 2016. If there is anything wrong with it, there are a few possible reasons. For example, the blog may have been misstated by the “disgusting and corrupt media.” Alternatively, somebody – probably Russian operatives – may have hacked my email account and intentionally created errors in this posting. In any case, it may not be accurate at the time you read this blog because one or both of the candidates may have changed his and/or her proposals sometime today or tomorrow or soon thereafter.
First, let’s start with Mrs. Clinton’s tax policy proposals. They have been pretty consistent for the last several months. In summary, they are, for the most part, warmed-over Obama proposals. President Obama has proposed many of these tax changes for years. A Republican Congress or a divided Congress has pretty much stymied his changes. One major exception – ObamaCare.
Mr. Trump’s proposals are pretty radical. After reviewing his tax plans as of 8:00 a.m. CDT today, I conclude that his policies will help the little guy some and rich guys like Donald Trump a lot. If you want the details, I’ll be glad to chat over a cup of coffee.
On a macro level, what is the difference to the U.S. Treasury between the Clinton plan and the Trump plan? Most analysts say that Clinton’s plan would raise taxes about $1 trillion over a 10-year period. Independent experts calculated that Trump’s first tax proposal would cost the U.S. Treasury $10 trillion over 10 years. His people say that his newest plan, a few days old, only cuts taxes $3 trillion over 10 years. It looks like independent analysts have not had time yet to opine on that number. As you might guess, there is some concern about how basic government functions would be funded under the Trump plan.
What are my thoughts? I don’t think that either plan will move forward intact or in a form significantly resembling either of these original proposals. Reforms will be more incremental. Too many oxen are being gored; too many lobbyists are employed in Washington. I’ll double down on my bet, if the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency are not controlled by the same party.